New lab publication in Landscape Ecology

Complex interactions among successional trajectories and climate govern spatial resilience after severe windstorms in central Wisconsin, USA


Melissa S. Lucash, Kelsey L. Ruckert, Robert E. Nicholas, Robert M. Scheller, and Erica A. H. Smithwick

Landscape Ecology 34: 2897. doi.org/10.1007/s10980-019-00929-1

Resilience is a concept central to the field of ecology, but our understanding of resilience is not sufficient to predict when and where large changes in species composition might occur following disturbances, particularly under climate change. We used a spatially-explicit, forest simulation model (LANDIS-II) to simulate how windstorms and climate change affect forest succession and used boosted regression tree analysis to isolate the important drivers of resilience.

Our results illustrate substantial spatial patterns of resilience at landscape scales, while documenting the potential for overall declines in resilience through time. Species diversity and windstorm size were far more important than temperature and soil moisture in driving long term trends in resilience. Finally, our research highlights the utility of using machine learning (e.g., boosted regression trees) to discern the underlying mechanisms of landscape-scale processes when using complex spatially-interactive and non-deterministic simulation models.

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Our lab is hiring soon!

Postdoctoral Researcher to study climate change and disturbances in Siberia

This outreach notice is an early alert to inform potential applicants that the Department of Geography at Portland State University will soon be advertising for a 2+ year post-doctoral researcher funded by the National Science Foundation. 

The successful candidate will be a member of an international interdisciplinary team of landscape ecologists, forest ecologists, and spatial modelers at Portland State University, the U.S. Forest Service and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. The candidate will estimate the ability of arctic and boreal ecosystems to keep pace with climate change and to quantify temporal and spatial variation in biome shifts and C stocks across a large latitudinal gradient in Siberian Russia (https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/showAward?AWD_ID=1844435).  Capitalizing on a rich and underutilized empirical dataset of Siberia, we will project future species composition and C dynamics under climate change using a landscape-scale forest simulation model (LANDIS-II) and compare our results to similar output from a global scale DGVM (CLM-FATES).  The results will be used to improve how DGVMs account for landscape-scale processes such as dispersal, disturbance and species-level interactions, which will ultimately impact the land cover inputs used by Global Circulation Models to project future global climate.  The successful candidate will have primary responsibility for the LANDIS-II modeling portion of the project. 

Major duties and tasks of the position:

·         Develop and validate initial conditions for the study area

·         Improve capabilities to model non-tree species (e.g., shrubs, sphagnum, grass).

·         Verify and validate permafrost behavior and hydrological impacts in the model.

·         Calibrate disturbances for each study area. 

·         Assist in developing and testing a new LANDIS-II output extension to estimate land surface albedo.

·         Conduct simulation experiments and analyze spatial and tabular outputs using GIS, R and other analytical tools to test hypotheses.

·         Collaborate with project personnel to publish and disseminate results.

The position will be located at the US Forest Service Institute for Applied Ecosystems in Rhinelander, WI for approximately the first 14 months of the appointment, and then at Portland State University in Portland, OR for an additional 12 months.  Compensation includes an annual salary of $54,000 with health benefits provided by Portland State.  The position will be officially advertised in mid-October and will begin on Jan 15, 2020, although it could begin as late as March 1, 2020.

Contact Information

To express interest in this position please send an email, including a current CV and 1-pg letter of interest describing how your experience prepares you for the duties of the position, to Dr. Melissa Lucash (Principal Investigator) at lucash@pdx.edu

Melissa and Shelby are heading to CO to present at IALE!

A Glimpse into the Future: Using Spatial Modeling and Virtual Reality to Visualize Forests under Climate Change . Melissa Lucash, Jiawei Huang, Alexander Klippel,Robert M. Scheller, Robert Nicholas, Kelsey L. Ruckert, Erica A.H. Smithwick,

Using habitat suitability modeling to evaluate potential moose habitat and patterns of wildfire in interior Alaska. Shelby Weiss and Melissa Lucash

The Predictable, and not so Predictable, Spatial Distribution of Short Interval Fires Across the US West. Brian Buma, Melissa Lucash, Katherine Hayes and Shelby Weiss

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Dr. Lucash's essay on the challenges of re-entering academia after being a stay-at-home mother

Melissa Lucash, PhD
Research Assistant Professor
Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, USA
Follow Melissa on Twitter

     Being a stay-at-home mom (SAHM) for five years has left an indelible mark on my career. When I got pregnant during the fourth year of my PhD, my husband and I played “Who gets the best job first?” I lost and we moved from Syracuse, NY to Portland, OR. As a pregnant woman alone in a new city, I worked on my dissertation each day at the grocery store, befriending the local retired men’s group. I defended my dissertation when my daughter was nine months old. As she grew, I was a SAHM by day, but two nights a week I pretended I was a scientist again and worked on my dissertation publications. My friends thought I was crazy to spend my precious free time working on papers. But I knew I didn’t want to be a SAHM forever and needed to keep publishing. Even after my second daughter was born, I continued to write each night at the glacial pace of an exhausted mother who slept in two-hour increments every night.

Read my full essay here:

https://theearlypages.blogspot.com/2019/03/holey-science-gaps-in-research-career.html#Melissa